Vietnam closed 2025 with seafood export revenue of USD 11.34 billion, up 13% year-on-year, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) — a record, with shrimp alone contributing USD 4.6 billion (up 19%) and pangasius USD 2.2 billion (up 7.5%). Australia is a small piece of that total, but it's a useful case study for any buyer trying to understand what a free-trade tariff cut actually does to a sourcing relationship — because in Australia's case, it did very different things to shrimp and to pangasius.
The tariff change was real and it was total
When the CPTPP came into force in 2019, shrimp, pangasius, and other marine products imported from Vietnam into Australia moved to a 0% duty rate. This wasn't a phased-in reduction — it was a full removal of the prior tariff, and it applied across the seafood categories Australian buyers were already sourcing. Four years in, Australia had become the 6th largest single market for Vietnamese seafood, per VASEP's CPTPP review, which is a meaningful jump for a market of Australia's population size. If you're benchmarking against other CPTPP members, Japan and Canada showed similarly stable demand patterns over the same window — the agreement clearly opened a door.
But shrimp and pangasius walked through that door differently
Here's the part that matters more than the tariff headline: vannamei shrimp exports to Australia rose from USD 112 million in 2018 to USD 259.5 million in 2022 — a 171% increase in four years under identical tariff conditions. Pangasius, over that same 2018–2022 window and the same 0% duty, went the other direction: down 18%, from USD 47 million to USD 38 million. Same trade agreement, same tariff schedule, same four-year window — opposite outcomes. That gap tells you the tariff was necessary but not sufficient. Something on the demand side was doing the real work for shrimp, and working against pangasius.
Why the gap exists
Australia's retail seafood counter is dominated by domestic barramundi, prawns, and salmon, with imported whitefish competing hardest in the value-added and foodservice channels rather than the fresh retail case. Shrimp had an easier path in — it slots into existing foodservice and retail formats (peeled, cooked, breaded) where Australian buyers were already used to sourcing from Southeast Asia on price and consistency. Pangasius had to compete more directly against a stronger domestic whitefish identity and, unlike in the EU or Latin America, never built the same category recognition in Australian retail that it has in markets where it's sold as a straightforward fillet substitute. A tariff cut doesn't build that recognition — it only removes one cost layer once the demand case already exists.
What this means if you're sourcing into Australia now
If you're an Australian buyer or a broker sourcing for the Australian market, don't assume CPTPP membership alone makes a Vietnamese product competitive there — check whether the specific species and format you want has actual retail or foodservice traction in Australia first, then use the 0% duty as a cost advantage on top of that, not as the reason the product will sell. Practically: confirm your supplier can issue a proper certificate of origin so you can actually claim the CPTPP rate at the Australian border (a surprising number of first-time shipments get held up simply because the origin paperwork wasn't prepared correctly), and separately confirm the shipment meets Australia's import health and biosecurity conditions for seafood, which sit outside the trade agreement entirely and are enforced regardless of tariff status. For shrimp, the demand path is proven — the sourcing conversation is mostly about spec, cold-chain reliability, and price. For pangasius or any newer product line into this market, budget time and marketing effort to build buyer familiarity before assuming the tariff advantage does that work for you.
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